AI boom to promote TSMC CoWoS advanced packaging capacity tight, it is understood that after nearly two months of inter-ministerial negotiations, bamboo Management Bureau has officially sent a letter, agreeing to TSMC to obtain bamboo Gong Park area of about 7 hectares of land. TSMC will spend 90 billion yuan to build the island's latest CoWoS advanced sealing plant, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2026 and begin mass production in the third quarter of 2027.
TSMC President Wei Zhe Jia said on the 20th that the increase in AI related demand is a positive trend for TSMC, and it is predicted that the next five years will grow at an annual growth rate of nearly 50%, and account for about 10% of TSMC's revenue, so the construction of CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is "As quickly as possible".
Since TSMC Zhunan Advanced sealed test Plant six (AP6) was officially opened in June this year, the outside world recently reported that TSMC CoWoS production capacity is tight, and may face customer transfer orders, causing many outside speculation. It is reported that a few years ago, when Bamboo carried out the land planning for the Causeway Park, TSMC had been heard to enter the causeway, and at that time, it was locked as the first and second phase of the land by LSMC, so TSMC withdrew from the land grab war.
However, at the end of May this year, TSMC executives asked the Minister of Economy for help, assessing that advanced packaging orders were more than expected, and that the production capacity in the next two years could not meet the orders on hand, hoping to obtain factory land to build a new plant.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs raised TSMC's demand to the level of the Executive Yuan, and the Vice President of the Executive Yuan Cheng Wen-chan invited an inter-ministerial meeting to coordinate in June. People familiar with the matter reported that the government Yuan assessed that TSMC construction is imminent, and TSMC advanced manufacturing process is indeed urgent and necessary for the strategic leadership of Taiwan's semiconductor industry, so through strong people to lobby the chairman of the board Huang Chongren, the land that has not yet been started to build the plant will be leased by TSMC, and the Bamboo Bureau agreed to TSMC leasing in the 20th letter.
After TSMC's sixth advanced packaging plant is located in the Bamboo Valley Park, it will be planned to focus on System integration chip (SoIC), integrated fan-out package (InFO), and on-wafer Chip package (CoWoS), which is estimated to bring about 1,500 job opportunities. The second phase of the two land area of 7.9 hectares, the park revealed that because the main force of TSMC plant construction are in the United States sprint AZ plant, so now after the land can not be built immediately.
TSMC estimates that land preparation will begin in the fourth quarter of 2023, construction will begin in the second half of 2024, and the factory will be completed in 2026, and mass production will begin in the first half of 2027 or the third quarter at the latest, and the 3D Fabric process technology with a monthly capacity of 110,000 12-inch wafers will ease the explosive demand.
In addition, TSMC 1 nano process will be located in Zhuke Longtan Park, the original Zhuke planned Longke Phase 3 expansion scope, affected by land acquisition, is expected to be adjusted. It is understood that the bamboo Bureau and Taoyuan City government will give up the north refused to relocate the factory area, the expansion scope to the east, that is, the future Longke phase three will cover the east side of the land of Tai Keng Qixi, and bamboo will recently send the latest boundary planning to the Executive Yuan adjustment, hoping to accelerate land acquisition, so that TSMC 1 nano latest process can be successfully online in 2027.
At the same time, there is news that because of the shortage of CoWoS production capacity, ASE, Amkor and UMC and other manufacturers have received outsourcing orders from TSMC, UMC has expanded the production capacity of the intermediary layer, but from the supply chain news pointed out that CoWoS currently contributes little to the revenue of ASE and UMC, and the current revenue proportion is only in the low single digits. The market estimate is only about 1% to 3%, and the contribution to this year's revenue is not fast.
For UMC's operations in the second half of the year, analysts pointed out that the overall mature process demand for wafer foundries remained conservative, mainly because most customers still have a lot of inventory on hand, for mature process foundries outside TSMC, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will be flat in the second half of the year. Although mature process foundries held firm to prices in the first half of the year, the capacity utilization rate in the second half of the year was still unable to recover, and the market expected ASP to still have revision pressure.
Previously, it was also reported that ASE has received TSMC CoWoS outsourcing orders, the company is quite low-key and cannot comment on this, however, according to the supply chain news also pointed out that CoWoS has contributed very little to ASE Investment Control this year, and the operation of ASE has rebounded in the second half of the year, but advanced process is not an important driving force. Market legal persons are optimistic about ASE in the third quarter in AI, automotive, HPC, servers and other needs to pull down, the third quarter revenue is expected to increase by double digits.
Ase in the second quarter of electronic foundry services (EMS) in the vehicle driven has begun to warm, and closed test (ATM) in the second quarter is stable, it is understood that in the second half of the electronic foundry services (EMS) in the third quarter will see a more obvious rebound, closed test (ATM) business is also expected to start to rebound in the third quarter, The overall third quarter is expected to see a more obvious recovery performance, roughly in line with the expectations of the corporate circle.